[Article Cutbacks!] Where the govt can save money for 2009 Budget

[Mark Hennessy]

Quelle surprise, the Business Post has a nice helpful bullet point list on things that can be cut to keep the public finances (current spending) afloat.

Big investments: where the government may look for savings

1. The Metro North
Finance minister Brian Lenihan has indicated the project will go ahead by telling the Railway Procurement Agency to proceed with getting bids from operators.

It is expected to have a final price tag of more than €5 billion and Department of Finance officials are believed to be sceptical about economic benefits. It is not known how much of this would be spent in 2009 under the proposed public private partnership scheme.

Meanwhile, Lenihan has made it clear that he wants a full analysis of the benefits which would come from the investment. Politically, ditching the Metro would be near to impossible, but delay must now be a strong option and could save a significant sum next year. The order to give the Railway Procurement Agency the go-ahead to proceed is due to be issued next month. Meanwhile, the Metro West, due to be completed between 2010 and 2014, will surely be put on the back-burner.

2. The Luas extensions
A range of extensions to the Luas network form part of Transport 21: A railway order was signed to proceed with the Citywest-Saggart extension. As this is to be part-funded by property developers, it may well proceed.

The Docklands extension is already under way. Other projects, such as the Cherrywood/Bray extension, may be more vulnerable to delay. The plan to link the green and red lines, meanwhile, has already been quietly put on the back-burner and this will inevitably delay a planned extension to Grangegorman and the so-called Liffey Junction to link up with the Maynooth railway line.

The Green Party will be pressing in government for as much as possible of the Luas extensions to proceed as planned.

3. The rail interconnector
This is the plan to connect the existing Northern railway line to the lines running from Heuston Station, mainly by way of a tunnel. This is considered a central plank of the Dublin transport plan, as it will help to relieve the logjam at the main city centre stations. It is expected to proceed, though a delay cannot be ruled out.

4. The Western rail corridor
The Ennis-to-Athenry line is now almost complete, with planned extensions first to Tuam and then Claremorris. The line is expected to run at a €2 million annual operating loss, according to documents supplied by Iarnród Éireann and recently published on the Department of Finance website. A big political issue in the area, the proposed extensions to Tuam and Claremorris are likely to be delayed.

5. Other rail and bus projects
In Cork, work is well under way on the re-opening of the railway line between Glounthaune and Midleton, with new stations at Carrigtwohill and Midleton. The first trains are expected to run next year. Given that the project is nearly complete, it looks certain to proceed.

Work is also under way on expanding the Kildare commuter line, is due to start on the reopening of the line to Clonsilla, and on the electrification of other lines. Meanwhile hundreds of millions have been set aside for the provision of new buses in Dublin and across the country. Some of this spending may now be under threat.

6. The roads
The major inter-urban road projects are all well under way and due for completion by 2010. The government is expected to press ahead with this. Meanwhile the M50 upgrade is in progress.

The other road priorities, as outlined in Transport 21, include the Atlantic road corridor from Letterkenny running down to Cork and Waterford, strategic road links with the North, some further work on national primary roads such as the routes from Dublin to Rosslare, Killarney to Cork and Limerick to Waterford, and a number of the bigger so-called secondary roads.

Given that almost €1.7 billion per annum is spent on the roads programme, the government could conceivably seek some savings here through delaying the start of new projects currently at the compulsory purchase order stage or in planning. The Greens would favour this rather than cutting back on fixed-line investment.

7. Other National Development Plan projects
The NDP included a host other smaller spending commitments – about €100 million of the €184 billion was capital investment and the rest was current spending. In the cull to come, none of this spending can be considered immune.

[Colm Moore]

Maybe I'm wrong, but doesn't the 3% of GDP (GNP?) deficit exclude capital spending?

And given that MN is unlikely to cost more than land acquistion and design / supervision costs for the next few years, there are no real savings to be made. Even at that, the RPA is getting development contributions.

Luas B1 and C1 are well underway and any suspension of work would be daft. A1 won't cost much until the private developers have all done their bit first.

Luas BX, B2, D, E and F would be different, but will have the development contributions anyway.

[Mark Gleeson]

Curiously Metro North is a PPP so it costs nothing till it opens. Is it a capital expense if its paid in 30 installments related to performance

[dowlingm]

shouldn't at least some construction costs be starting to level off with the downturn in the economy? Better to retain construction jobs by building infrastructure than pushing developers to build sprawl houses with no buyers.

[comcor]

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as that. The skills used in house building are different from the skills used on infrastructure projects. For example, how many carpenters and plumbers are used while building roads and railways. They might be more useful if they wanted to do something about getting schools built and kids out of prefabs, but that's not a debate for this message board.

[Colm Moore]

Originally Posted by comcor

Unfortunately, it's not as simple as that. The skills used in house building are different from the skills used on infrastructure projects. For example, how many carpenters and plumbers are used while building roads and railways. They might be more useful if they wanted to do something about getting schools built and kids out of prefabs, but that's not a debate for this message board.

However, the truck & digger drivers, the reinforcers, formwork carpenters, concrete workers, electricians and steeel & metal workers all have transferable skills.

[dowlingm]

what Victor said is what I was driving at - I realise the famous Polish plumbers can't drive TBMs (although if they could they'd probably drive them good and fast )