Coach competition

[Destructix]

I often see the GoBe passing me on the M8 its never that full in fact the X8 carries a lot more passengers. Aircoach is the same you only see a few heads looking up at it passing you. As Mark says you cant believe everything the Independent publishes. Sloppy poorly researched journalism.

[comcor]

I just suspect that they are carrying a loss in the hope that Irish Rail blink first.

In terms of intermediate stops, it depends on the connections. With a connection in Mallow, almost as many board the train as are already on it. And no surprise really. Mallow is the main station for 90,000 people in North Cork, plus 150,000 in Kerry from connections. That's not far off the catchment for Cork.

[Mark Gleeson]

Ryanair tried that as well, even at 0.01 cent and just taxes Irish Rail was cheaper.

Irish Rail's moves on the student market have undercut Bus Eireann and others on many long distance routes. 50% increase in student travel is reported on some routes.

Irish Rail's passenger numbers are actually going up not down so talk of bus impact on the numbers is not the reality and even if even single bus was full every day for a year with passengers from the train the train passenger numbers would still substantial and more than those before the hourly service was introduced.

10-15 minute journey time reduction in January as well will make a significant impact

[Colm Moore]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Plus bus licence is for ONE bus per service, anything extra is a breach of licence with the NTA

It would seem that licences allow a certain percentage of supplementary buses. It is also possible that event-specific licences were sought.

Originally Posted by comcor

TBH I would imagine all the business is Cork-Dublin Airport

I think I've used it twice and there would be a mix.

Originally Posted by Inniskeen

2) If the Cork service is carrying 2.5 million per annum (Irish Rail up to recently were quoting around 3.5 million) then the approximate average number of trips generated per train (188 services per week) needs to be something around 255.

I'm not certain, but I don't think the 3.5 million number is for trains departing from/to Cork. I suspect it is people boarding at any point between Cork and Dublin, on any train. It may exclude Portlaoise-Dublin passengers though.

[briank]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Standard Dublin Cork train
5 * 69
1 * 28
1 * 44
= 417 + 6 Wheelchair spaces
*28

Friday capacity is 11676 Makes that less than 9% Approx 2.5 million journeys per annum.

Where are you getting 28 from?

As I mentioned, both my Rail and Bus numbers where one direction only. If you want to do returns, then you have the double the coach capacity too, so it will still end up about 20%

So again, I'm afraid your figures are wrong and misrepresent the reality.

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Plus bus licence is for ONE bus per service, anything extra is a breach of licence with the NTA

Well in that case Aircoach broke their license when they put on an extra coach when the 7pm ex-Cork was full and there was another 30 people there.

No, I think you are find that all bus licenses allow for supplementary coaches, just as Bus Eireann have been doing on the Cork route on Fridays/Sundays for years and GoBus/Citylink have been doing in Galway.

Also nothing stopping them putting on Double Deckers and also asking the NTA for more scheduled services.

As for folks saying these services are very lightly used as they can't see heads in the buses as they pass. Well as someone who has actually been using these services almost weekly for the past few months, I can assure you that Aircoach buses are now regularly almost full. GoBE are lighter, but then it is a newer service and not as well known, but it is also picking up business very quickly.

The thing is, I'm a Corkonian living in Dublin, with many similar friends. I and every single one of my friends have switched to Aircoach/GoBE. Last week, a large number of other friends living in Dublin (but from all over the world) went down to Cork for the Jazz weekend, every single one of them took Aircoach/GoBE.

Sure this particular information maybe just one users observation, but I really can't see how IR numbers couldn't be going down with everything I'm actually seeing in person.

I suppose time will tell when actual figures are published.

TBH I would imagine all the business is Cork-Dublin Airport

IME of regularly using these services about 90% Cork-Dublin City. Very few go on or to the airport.

[briank]

Crunching the numbers further.

According to the Aecom report, Irish Rail carry 2,434,000 passengers on the Cork route.

So that works out at 6,668 passengers per day.

GoBe/Aircoach (excluding BE) have a regular scheduled [1] capacity of 3,250 passengers per day.

That means Irish Rail now face new competition that has the capacity to steal almost 50% of Irish Rails passengers on this route. This is capacity that simply didn't exist this time last year.

There is certainly not a fraction of Irish Rails capacity as Mark claimed, this is a very large and dangerous new competitor to IR.

[1] Again regular capacity, nothing stopping them using extra buses or increasing capacity significantly by using double deckers.

[Inniskeen]

The 2,434,000 million presumeably inludes all intermediate traffic on the Cork line (except Arrow services to/from Kildare).

Given that the bus services under discussion are essentially direct Cork/Dublin services, comparable Irish Rail carryings are much lower, probably closer to the 1,000,000 mark.

[Thomas Ralph]

Originally Posted by briank

Where are you getting 28 from?

28 would be coach B I'd say.

Originally Posted by briank

Crunching the numbers further.

According to the Aecom report, Irish Rail carry 2,434,000 passengers on the Cork route.

So that works out at 6,668 passengers per day.

GoBe/Aircoach (excluding BE) have a regular scheduled [1] capacity of 3,250 passengers per day.

That means Irish Rail now face new competition that has the capacity to steal almost 50% of Irish Rails passengers on this route. This is capacity that simply didn't exist this time last year.

Are you not comparing IÉ's total passengers carried with the coach companies' capacity? Apples and oranges, given that a seat on a coach at half twelve is not an adequate substitute for a seat on the train at quarter past six.

Originally Posted by briank

[1] Again regular capacity, nothing stopping them using extra buses or increasing capacity significantly by using double deckers.

Plenty stopping them using extra buses (licence as Marko mentions above) and double deckers (80kph speed limit instead of 100kph adding 25% to journey time).

[Destructix]

Well it past me just outside Cashel on the M8 yesterday and the bus was almost empty. No point arguing about it as loads of Aircoach fan boys will come on claiming the trains are empty everyday yet when i get on a train in Thurles I am often left standing. Passenger numbers on the mainline haven't changed. This is from someone who travels to college by train at various times everyday and often has to stand for over an hour on some of these trains.

[briank]

Originally Posted by Inniskeen

The 2,434,000 million presumeably inludes all intermediate traffic on the Cork line (except Arrow services to/from Kildare).

Given that the bus services under discussion are essentially direct Cork/Dublin services, comparable Irish Rail carryings are much lower, probably closer to the 1,000,000 mark.

Which if that is the case, it would mean GoBE/Aircoach would be able to carry almost 100% of IR's Cork to Dublin passengers.

Are you not comparing IÉ's total passengers carried with the coach companies' capacity? Apples and oranges, given that a seat on a coach at half twelve is not an adequate substitute for a seat on the train at quarter past six.

That is right and I readily admit it isn't direct comparison. However remember I made this comment because Mark originally said that the new competition represent only a fraction of IR's capacity and thus nothing to worry about.

I'm trying to show how inaccurate that statement is. That GoBE/Aircoach have very significant capacity, enough to easily take at least 50% of IR's passengers on the route and that is certainly nothing to be sniffed at.

If GoBE/Aircoach take even 25% of the passengers on the route it would be devastating to IR's finances.

Plenty stopping them using extra buses (licence as Marko mentions above) and double deckers (80kph speed limit instead of 100kph adding 25% to journey time).

I'm afraid you are wrong on both points.

1) The license allows for an extra buses, they are just required to leave at the same time (i.e. two buses leave at 2pm, what you aren't allowed to do is have one leave at 2pm and another at 2:30pm, as that would overlap with your competitor).

Bus Eireann have been doing this for years, Fridays and Sundays always had extra buses, literally every weekend.

GoBus/Citylink do it all the time to Galway.

I was on an Aircoach support bus (for the 30 people who couldn't fit on the regular 7pm bus that was full) from Cork on the Jazz weekend.

2) Double Deck coaches have the same speed limit (100km/h on the Motorway) as single deck coaches:

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en...n_ireland.html

Passenger numbers on the mainline haven't changed.

Fact, passenger numbers are down 25% on their peak, see the Irish Rail sponsored AECOM report into intercity travel here:

http://www.irishrail.ie/cat_news.jsp?i=4482&p=116&n=237

Detailed facts for you to read here.

It will be interesting to see the 2012 figures and in particular how things hold up in 2013 (when GoBE/Aircoach will have been operating for a full year and should be better known by then, remember they are new services and it does take time to get established).

[Thomas J Stamp]

personally speaking if the buses cause IE to be more flexible regarding their pricing and services then everyone is a winner. Also, the coaches call at some different stops to the train, eg, Cashel, so both services can compliment each other.

BTW, as someone who literally lives on the main line, I have never seen a 4-coach Mark4 set. Have seen a lot of 22ks though, which is a lousy alternative to offer.

[Mark Gleeson]

For the record passenger numbers on Irish Rail are actually growing, so scare stories of falling numbers don't stack up

[subtract]

"For the record passenger numbers on Irish Rail are actually growing, so scare stories of falling numbers don't stack up."

Hmmm. Anecdotal evidence, but here goes:

I commuted daily from Portarlington to Heuston from 2004 - 2009. I left Portarlington anytime between 06:30 and 9:00, and returned on trains leaving Heuston between 16:00 and 18:30. Portarlington is a pretty handy location in terms of flexibility, since I could get trains going to/from Cork, Limerick, Galway, or Portlaoise - so I used all of those services as they suited.

The trains were almost always six (five?) carriage sets, irrespective of the destination, and I almost always had a seat (in and out). The morning inbound service (irrespective of time) was always standing room only once it hit Kildare or Newbridge. The outbound services were always more or less full, but it was possible to get a seat by arriving within ten minutes of departure.

I changed jobs to work locally and didn't commute at all between 2009 - 2013, but since March I'm back commuting a few days a week. The timetable is similar (some services slower, some faster), but I think the majority of trains are now three carriage sets (Portlaoise services) - and while some are standing room only (again from Kildare/Newbridge) the capacity is obviously only half of what it was four years ago. There's a six carriage set I get at 08:11 which is only ever half full - that would never have been the case five years ago.

I have the impression that passenger numbers have probably declined by 30% - 40% from 2009, based purely on my observation. I get some afternoon trains now as-well (both inbound and outbound - which I never did previously), and they're basically empty (except lunchtime services to Westport, which are almost always packed, and, of course, always three carriage sets.) The six carriage Galway trains leaving Heuston during the day only carry a handful of passengers.

Some general comments...

I find it odd that Cork trains no longer stop here. It does connect to the Galway line, after all. I understand numbers probably didn't stack up, and stopping/starting probably has too big an impact on the travel time post track re-alignment at Portarlington - but still - it was a shock to realise that Cork trains weren't timetabled.

The service overall is good, reliable, and consistent, but I find the timetable padding a bit irritating at times. We regularly arrive at Heuston in the morning on the 08:20 commuter service five minutes before the scheduled arrival time, only to sit waiting just outside the station... for what?

The other odd thing I've noticed is the lack of consistency in platform allocation for departures. The same train, travelling to the same destination, at the same time, six days a week, departing from... a random platform. I think Cork trains are still on Platform 5 (I haven't used a Cork train since 2009), but all of the others vary. It's just a little... incoherent.

[Eddie]

I've just completed a round trip to Cork from Dublin, outward by train and back by coach. I expected to drive down and up so neither were planned much in advance.

Managed to buy a ticket for the last train down on Friday just 48 hours before for €14.99, so happy enough with this. No on-board ticket checker and gates open in Cork on arrival. Despite 4 stops, arrived 5 minutes early, in 2 hours 30 mins, so journey times do seem to have improved since I last used the service a few months ago.

With 24 hours notice for the return journey, decided I would try Aircoach on today's return, but as I could not neither book by 5pm the previous evening, nor had access to print out a ticket nor a smartphone, was looking at a walk on fare (60% more), but bus was full. Can't say I fancied the idea of sitting in a full coach for 3 hours much anyway.

Managed to book online for the next Gobus. Slightly more at €13 but much better than a rail walk on fare / on-line fare and no on-line transaction fee. Only about 30% full so a much more comfortable journey than the Aircoach would have been, and as good as the train would have been. Age profile of those on the Gobus was definitely higher than the Aircoach, perhaps not surprising given Aircoach's lower fare. Will be happy to use this again if I can't get a train ticket for the price I'm happy to pay.

Passed Heuston station after 2 hours and 45 minutes, and was at Busaras 15 minutes later.

[MaryK]

I still take the train but I am more and more tempted to drive. Last week I drove to a destination which was outside city centre Dublin as I had an early morning start.

However on my way back to Cork past the Naas Road there were two Dublin/Cork Coaches and again I noticed behaviour that I had seen before with these Cork Dublin coaches.

I personally think they drive too fast and overtake which I always worry about on the motorway. I personally don't find their driving styles very safe and I would worry about accidents. It is just my perception but I have noticed it several times when out and about on the Cork Dublin motorway.

[Colm Moore]

Originally Posted by MaryK

I personally think they drive too fast and overtake which I always worry about on the motorway. I personally don't find their driving styles very safe and I would worry about accidents. It is just my perception but I have noticed it several times when out and about on the Cork Dublin motorway.

Coaches are allowed do 100km/h on dual carriageways and motorways, unless the speed limit is lower. They are only allowed 80km/h on other roads and that is where I've seen them speeding.

From being on them, I've not noticed anything particularly hazardous, although they do tend to do too many lanes changes on the Dublin side of Naas. They are slightly aggressive when taking the M50 exit at the Red Cow, although there are too many cars in the wrong lane (cars from the auxiliary lane on the M50 tend to head for the right hand lane for heading to Newlands Cross).

Buses and coaches are an order of scale safer than cars. And trains are an order of scale safer again.

[Eddie]

I haven't taken a coach trip for a long time before the one mentioned above. The only thing that slightly concerned me and has concerned me in the past about other coach driver's driving and is frequently ignored by motorists in general, is non-observation of the 2-second stopping distance "rule" / recommendation.

Some other vehicle in front might be trying to overtake another vehicle but takes ages to do so because its only doing 3mph more (usually a lorry). The coach is then right up the ar*e of the overtaking vehicle because it won't slow down. If anything unexpected happens to the vehicle in front the driver leaves himself no thinking time and everyone's a goner.