Coach competition

[Traincustomer]

Details of a Bus Éireann and Gobus jointly operated service commencing in September:

http://buseireann.ie/news.php?id=1162&month=Aug

[Mark Gleeson]

Total sum of coach capacity is still a small fraction of capacity Irish Rail have available

IE's market share is of the order of 40% Dublin Cork vs all other modes

[Traincustomer]

Good that IÉ have circa 40% of the market share. With all of these new express coach routes I was beginning to get quite concerned for the future of railways generally. The figure puts things into perspective.
Out of interest do you have the approximate market share figures for rail on other corridors e.g. Dublin - Belfast/Sligo/Rosslare?

[Thomas J Stamp]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Total sum of coach capacity is still a small fraction of capacity Irish Rail have available

IE's market share is of the order of 40% Dublin Cork vs all other modes

that is bunker talk. All that it takes is for this to take off, then others will join in, then others from portlaoise and other intermediate stops and before you know it, that 40% is in the other direction. Not to mention the fact that IE plan to raise prices and cut services, and, again, not to mention that in 10,15,20 years time the same rolling stock will be trundling up and down the permanent way whilst new product will be rolling out all the time to the bus operators.

[comcor]

Even if IE have unfortunately convinced themselves that getting the time down on Cork-Dublin is not a priority, it's the only way they will keep market share. They will never be able to compete with coach operators on price, but if they have a Cork time under 2 hours (which by implication means Limerick under 1:45 and Killarney around 2:30), it would take a massively price driven consumer to use the bus instead. At current times, they'll lose all the Dublin Airport market and a reasonable amount of citybound traffic.

[markpb]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Total sum of coach capacity is still a small fraction of capacity Irish Rail have available

Is that really relevant?

[Mark Gleeson]

The possible market share of the coach competition is small as they don't have the capacity to actually take on Irish Rail's position

Looking at journey time reductions of 10-20 minutes on Dublin Cork in Dec/Jan

Ignore the rubbish coming out of the Independent as it doesn't stack up, if everyone has defected to the bus, why are Bus Eireann's numbers also down? Baring in mind for most routes Bus Eireann has no private competition

The fall in passenger numbers actually happened 3 years ago, before bus competition really arrived. Some routes the numbers are actually up.

[dowlingm]

I wish I could be as sanguine as you Mark. The forthcoming timetable revisions are likely to resemble a ship which cuts off its masts and rudder "because a light ship goes fast". While Gobe will cannibalise Aircoach and the X8 to some extent, their book-a-seat-get-a-seat model is closer to IE's.

I think IE need to look at making its own alliances with the private sector to expand the reach of its network and fill in timetable gaps. The option to select Dublin Airport as a destination on the website by integrating rail ticket and the 747 service at a discounted price should be a nobrainer. A pre-0845 arrival Dublin-Cork should at least be tried.

Sitting on their hands, or appearing to, is not going to get them anywhere.

[Traincustomer]

As mentioned in comcor's post I think that it's very important that a faster Dublin-Cork service is not viewed in isolation but as something that will deliver attendant time savings to other routes also.

For instance it would mean a journey time from Heuston to Tipperary town of 1 hour 44mins to 1 hour 54 mins.

Whether it will also deliver time savings for passengers travelling to Cóbh, Midleton and Cork suburban locations probably will depend on how the new mainline timetable interfaces with the existing suburban schedule and whether adjustments are made to the suburban pattern.

[dowlingm]

We'll have to see if there even are services to Tipp town after this timetable! Accelerating Limerick and Kerry times should be seen from the UIC60 around Portlaoise, Lisduff and so on. Kerry in particular will be one of the last places to attract the privates so IE should keep them happy, maybe ditching the 2600 in favour of all 22K for Cork-Tralee in any services where that remains the case. If the N22 Macroom bypass goes ahead in full or in part (having finally gotten through ABP) yet another Sister Company Express might not be far behind.

[Inniskeen]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

The possible market share of the coach competition is small as they don't have the capacity to actually take on Irish Rail's position

Looking at journey time reductions of 10-20 minutes on Dublin Cork in Dec/Jan

Ignore the rubbish coming out of the Independent as it doesn't stack up, if everyone has defected to the bus, why are Bus Eireann's numbers also down? Baring in mind for most routes Bus Eireann has no private competition

The fall in passenger numbers actually happened 3 years ago, before bus competition really arrived. Some routes the numbers are actually up.

It will be interesting to see if IR thin out the Dublin/Cork servive - some trains are pretty lightly loaded but the hourly frequency is particularly attractive for business customers who might not consider the train at all if faced with the prospect of a two hour wait should meetings over-run or whatever.

Students are probably the most likely to defect to buses as they travel reasonably regularly and have limited budgets. The tendency to migrate to bus is obviously greater if modal journey times are little different, departure points are more convenient and comfort levels are reasonably comparable.

The major competitor for the railway is not the bus, it is the private car - the motorist needs an excuse to leave his car behind - i.e. less stress, greater comfort, availability of catering, faster journey times, avoidance of rising fuel costs, avoiding city centre parking charges.

[briank]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Total sum of coach capacity is still a small fraction of capacity Irish Rail have available

That is very misleading, Irish Rails capacity is 7,395 per day [1]

Gobus and Aircoach regular scheduled capacity is 1,600 per day [2]

That is 20%, hardly a fraction. However that is only half the story.

Firstly nothing stopping Gobus/Aircoach putting on extra coaches when demand calls for it, just like Aircoach did last Monday evening ex-Cork when they were swapped with the bank holiday crowds. The were running full coaches and were bringing in hire-ins from Mallow coaches, etc.

Also nothing stopping GoBus/Aircoach increasing their schedule, number of coaches (e.g. two per hour, etc.) and put on double deckers, as word of mouth spreads and their numbers increase, just like GoBus/Citylink do on their very successful Galway route.

Second, as you know well, Irish Rail rarely comes close to filling their trains. The coach companies don't need the same capacity as Irish Rail. Even with only a fifth of the capacity of rail, if they fill the coaches with rail passengers, it could easily equate to a 50% drop in rail passenger numbers on the route.

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

IE's market share is of the order of 40% Dublin Cork vs all other modes

That figure as you know is from before GoBus/Aircoach started their new services, when the only coach competition was Bus Eireann and it took 4 hours 30 minutes!!

A better comparison is the Galway route where GoBus/Citylink have been operating direct non stop services for a number of years. There the market split is 25/25 coach/train, versus the 10/40 last year on the Cork route.

If Irish Rail was to lose 15% of the Cork market it would be devastating for them. Given that Cork is their busiest intercity route, a 15% reduction would equate to about a 25% drop in total intercity numbers.

If I was Irish Rail, I would be very worried about these new competing services. They are likely to have a significant impact on passenger numbers and what you can charge for tickets.

The major competitor for the railway is not the bus, it is the private car - the motorist needs an excuse to leave his car behind - i.e. less stress, greater comfort, availability of catering, faster journey times, avoidance of rising fuel costs, avoiding city centre parking charges.

Interesting point, I think these new coach services are going to do more to attract people out of their cars then rail.

Think about it, it costs about €60 return by car in fuel and tolls. A €80 train ticket certainly isn't going to attract you out of your car. Even a €47 advance ticket is a marginal saving.

However a €18 (yes return!!) coach ticket might just well do the job.

[1] Actually the capacity is a little less, this number is based on all Mark 4's, but as we know, a few 22k are used too.

[2] The coach capacity range between 48 and 53, with most around 53, but I split the difference and said 50. This figure doesn't include the existing Bus Eireann service.

BTW the number are only in one direction, double it for return.