The other factor that they are possibly modeling very badly is the very effective competition provided by private bus operators. Citylink provide an hourly or more frequent service from Galway to Dublin which beats the train in time and goes to the actual city centre - or airport. And this is at a significant discount to the train. Many other routes have buses that are faster than the train.
When money is tight, people are willing to try the alternatives and if they offer a reasonable service at a significantly cheaper price, then people will stick with them. With Irish Rail offering luxury prices and Ryanair customer service, who is going to stick with them when there are alternatives available?
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