Coach competition
 

Details of a Bus Éireann and Gobus jointly operated service commencing in September:

http://buseireann.ie/news.php?id=1162&month=Aug

Total sum of coach capacity is still a small fraction of capacity Irish Rail have available

IE's market share is of the order of 40% Dublin Cork vs all other modes

Good that IÉ have circa 40% of the market share. With all of these new express coach routes I was beginning to get quite concerned for the future of railways generally. The figure puts things into perspective.
Out of interest do you have the approximate market share figures for rail on other corridors e.g. Dublin - Belfast/Sligo/Rosslare?

that is bunker talk. All that it takes is for this to take off, then others will join in, then others from portlaoise and other intermediate stops and before you know it, that 40% is in the other direction. Not to mention the fact that IE plan to raise prices and cut services, and, again, not to mention that in 10,15,20 years time the same rolling stock will be trundling up and down the permanent way whilst new product will be rolling out all the time to the bus operators.

Even if IE have unfortunately convinced themselves that getting the time down on Cork-Dublin is not a priority, it's the only way they will keep market share. They will never be able to compete with coach operators on price, but if they have a Cork time under 2 hours (which by implication means Limerick under 1:45 and Killarney around 2:30), it would take a massively price driven consumer to use the bus instead. At current times, they'll lose all the Dublin Airport market and a reasonable amount of citybound traffic.

Is that really relevant?

The possible market share of the coach competition is small as they don't have the capacity to actually take on Irish Rail's position

Looking at journey time reductions of 10-20 minutes on Dublin Cork in Dec/Jan

Ignore the rubbish coming out of the Independent as it doesn't stack up, if everyone has defected to the bus, why are Bus Eireann's numbers also down? Baring in mind for most routes Bus Eireann has no private competition

The fall in passenger numbers actually happened 3 years ago, before bus competition really arrived. Some routes the numbers are actually up.

I wish I could be as sanguine as you Mark. The forthcoming timetable revisions are likely to resemble a ship which cuts off its masts and rudder "because a light ship goes fast". While Gobe will cannibalise Aircoach and the X8 to some extent, their book-a-seat-get-a-seat model is closer to IE's.

I think IE need to look at making its own alliances with the private sector to expand the reach of its network and fill in timetable gaps. The option to select Dublin Airport as a destination on the website by integrating rail ticket and the 747 service at a discounted price should be a nobrainer. A pre-0845 arrival Dublin-Cork should at least be tried.

Sitting on their hands, or appearing to, is not going to get them anywhere.

As mentioned in comcor's post I think that it's very important that a faster Dublin-Cork service is not viewed in isolation but as something that will deliver attendant time savings to other routes also.

For instance it would mean a journey time from Heuston to Tipperary town of 1 hour 44mins to 1 hour 54 mins.

Whether it will also deliver time savings for passengers travelling to Cóbh, Midleton and Cork suburban locations probably will depend on how the new mainline timetable interfaces with the existing suburban schedule and whether adjustments are made to the suburban pattern.

We'll have to see if there even are services to Tipp town after this timetable! Accelerating Limerick and Kerry times should be seen from the UIC60 around Portlaoise, Lisduff and so on. Kerry in particular will be one of the last places to attract the privates so IE should keep them happy, maybe ditching the 2600 in favour of all 22K for Cork-Tralee in any services where that remains the case. If the N22 Macroom bypass goes ahead in full or in part (having finally gotten through ABP) yet another Sister Company Express might not be far behind.

Not sure if your point regarding Tipperary is in jest or serious - given the fact that most of the line is upgraded to continuous welded rail and that even now it offers a journey time broadly similar to the road journey (and notably faster for most sections than the Bus Éireann route 55 Expressway) it would be ridiculous if services on the Waterford-Clonmel-Limerick Jct. line cannot be accelerated.

Personally feel that the timetable on the line needs to be reconfigured to facilitate commuter traffic into Waterford as well as its current main purpose in feeding into the Dublin-Cork service at Limerick Junction. Plus run the trains to/from Limerick city. Some would say add a Clonmel to Dublin through train.

If the powers that be are really thinking of ceasing the entire service on lines then it needs to be done fairly and transparently meaning that Ballybrophy-Nenagh-Limerick and Ennis-Athenry should be looked at before Limerick Jct. - Waterford.

Nenagh got CWR too, and even South Wexford got a bit (and I believe some was lifted from where it was left near Campile?) Don't forget the signalling works done too, and the loop works. Lots of shekels spent to make the line look expensive.

Pointless as long as the schedule is slaved to Dublin-Cork trains and split in two, as you note below - what impetus is there for change to through services and other improvements? For me a game changer could be finding a way to get the line open on Sundays - even half the day. Too late for the GAA special season but at least there could be evening trains to grab some of the UL/LIT/WIT market.

A Sunday service would be good.

Personally I wouldn't have an issue with any line closing if firstly all reasonable efforts to make it work came to nothing. Given the levels of negativity which sometimes surround rail matters it seems like decisions have already been made behind closed doors. If all the negativity could be chanelled in some way it might actually achieve something that benefits the country.

It will be interesting to see if IR thin out the Dublin/Cork servive - some trains are pretty lightly loaded but the hourly frequency is particularly attractive for business customers who might not consider the train at all if faced with the prospect of a two hour wait should meetings over-run or whatever.

Students are probably the most likely to defect to buses as they travel reasonably regularly and have limited budgets. The tendency to migrate to bus is obviously greater if modal journey times are little different, departure points are more convenient and comfort levels are reasonably comparable.

The major competitor for the railway is not the bus, it is the private car - the motorist needs an excuse to leave his car behind - i.e. less stress, greater comfort, availability of catering, faster journey times, avoidance of rising fuel costs, avoiding city centre parking charges.

That is very misleading, Irish Rails capacity is 7,395 per day [1]

Gobus and Aircoach regular scheduled capacity is 1,600 per day [2]

That is 20%, hardly a fraction. However that is only half the story.

Firstly nothing stopping Gobus/Aircoach putting on extra coaches when demand calls for it, just like Aircoach did last Monday evening ex-Cork when they were swapped with the bank holiday crowds. The were running full coaches and were bringing in hire-ins from Mallow coaches, etc.

Also nothing stopping GoBus/Aircoach increasing their schedule, number of coaches (e.g. two per hour, etc.) and put on double deckers, as word of mouth spreads and their numbers increase, just like GoBus/Citylink do on their very successful Galway route.

Second, as you know well, Irish Rail rarely comes close to filling their trains. The coach companies don't need the same capacity as Irish Rail. Even with only a fifth of the capacity of rail, if they fill the coaches with rail passengers, it could easily equate to a 50% drop in rail passenger numbers on the route.

That figure as you know is from before GoBus/Aircoach started their new services, when the only coach competition was Bus Eireann and it took 4 hours 30 minutes!!

A better comparison is the Galway route where GoBus/Citylink have been operating direct non stop services for a number of years. There the market split is 25/25 coach/train, versus the 10/40 last year on the Cork route.

If Irish Rail was to lose 15% of the Cork market it would be devastating for them. Given that Cork is their busiest intercity route, a 15% reduction would equate to about a 25% drop in total intercity numbers.

If I was Irish Rail, I would be very worried about these new competing services. They are likely to have a significant impact on passenger numbers and what you can charge for tickets.

Interesting point, I think these new coach services are going to do more to attract people out of their cars then rail.

Think about it, it costs about €60 return by car in fuel and tolls. A €80 train ticket certainly isn't going to attract you out of your car. Even a €47 advance ticket is a marginal saving.

However a €18 (yes return!!) coach ticket might just well do the job.

[1] Actually the capacity is a little less, this number is based on all Mark 4's, but as we know, a few 22k are used too.

[2] The coach capacity range between 48 and 53, with most around 53, but I split the difference and said 50. This figure doesn't include the existing Bus Eireann service.

BTW the number are only in one direction, double it for return.

Except perhaps their licence, which restricts the ability to add services willy-nilly.

Standard Dublin Cork train
5 * 69
1 * 28
1 * 44
= 417 + 6 Wheelchair spaces
*28

Friday capacity is 11676 Makes that less than 9% Approx 2.5 million journeys per annum.

Plus bus licence is for ONE bus per service, anything extra is a breach of licence with the NTA

I often see the 9:30am arrival at Parnell Place Bus Station when on my way to work. I never see more than a couple of people on it.

I also saw the 2:30am departure go out just over a week ago and there was nobody on board.

TBH I would imagine all the business is Cork-Dublin Airport as it easily beats the crappy 747 after you get off at Heuston. However, as Cork Airport has over 40 direct destinations, the demand isn't going to be the same as from places like Galway and Waterford.

Just a few points on the numbers.

1) About half the MK4 sets are now running in a reduced formation with only four standards.

2) If the Cork service is carrying 2.5 million per annum (Irish Rail up to recently were quoting around 3.5 million) then the approximate average number of trips generated per train (188 services per week) needs to be something around 255.

3) Given that Tralee and Limerick trips appear to be separately counted and there is nothing remotely approaching an avergae of 255 passengers arriving or departing from Cork, the intermediate business must be very healthy. I would imagine that the majority of intermediate trips are generated on Portlaoise locals as well as Galway, Westport, Limerick and Tralee services.

There is very healthy passenger numbers at intermediate stops, Thurles in particular

Load factors are variable but we still get reports of standing room only

I often see the GoBe passing me on the M8 its never that full in fact the X8 carries a lot more passengers. Aircoach is the same you only see a few heads looking up at it passing you. As Mark says you cant believe everything the Independent publishes. Sloppy poorly researched journalism.

I just suspect that they are carrying a loss in the hope that Irish Rail blink first.

In terms of intermediate stops, it depends on the connections. With a connection in Mallow, almost as many board the train as are already on it. And no surprise really. Mallow is the main station for 90,000 people in North Cork, plus 150,000 in Kerry from connections. That's not far off the catchment for Cork.

Ryanair tried that as well, even at 0.01 cent and just taxes Irish Rail was cheaper.

Irish Rail's moves on the student market have undercut Bus Eireann and others on many long distance routes. 50% increase in student travel is reported on some routes.

Irish Rail's passenger numbers are actually going up not down so talk of bus impact on the numbers is not the reality and even if even single bus was full every day for a year with passengers from the train the train passenger numbers would still substantial and more than those before the hourly service was introduced.

10-15 minute journey time reduction in January as well will make a significant impact

It would seem that licences allow a certain percentage of supplementary buses. It is also possible that event-specific licences were sought.

I think I've used it twice and there would be a mix.

I'm not certain, but I don't think the 3.5 million number is for trains departing from/to Cork. I suspect it is people boarding at any point between Cork and Dublin, on any train. It may exclude Portlaoise-Dublin passengers though.

Where are you getting 28 from?

As I mentioned, both my Rail and Bus numbers where one direction only. If you want to do returns, then you have the double the coach capacity too, so it will still end up about 20%

So again, I'm afraid your figures are wrong and misrepresent the reality.

Well in that case Aircoach broke their license when they put on an extra coach when the 7pm ex-Cork was full and there was another 30 people there.

No, I think you are find that all bus licenses allow for supplementary coaches, just as Bus Eireann have been doing on the Cork route on Fridays/Sundays for years and GoBus/Citylink have been doing in Galway.

Also nothing stopping them putting on Double Deckers and also asking the NTA for more scheduled services.

As for folks saying these services are very lightly used as they can't see heads in the buses as they pass. Well as someone who has actually been using these services almost weekly for the past few months, I can assure you that Aircoach buses are now regularly almost full. GoBE are lighter, but then it is a newer service and not as well known, but it is also picking up business very quickly.

The thing is, I'm a Corkonian living in Dublin, with many similar friends. I and every single one of my friends have switched to Aircoach/GoBE. Last week, a large number of other friends living in Dublin (but from all over the world) went down to Cork for the Jazz weekend, every single one of them took Aircoach/GoBE.

Sure this particular information maybe just one users observation, but I really can't see how IR numbers couldn't be going down with everything I'm actually seeing in person.

I suppose time will tell when actual figures are published.

IME of regularly using these services about 90% Cork-Dublin City. Very few go on or to the airport.

Crunching the numbers further.

According to the Aecom report, Irish Rail carry 2,434,000 passengers on the Cork route.

So that works out at 6,668 passengers per day.

GoBe/Aircoach (excluding BE) have a regular scheduled [1] capacity of 3,250 passengers per day.

That means Irish Rail now face new competition that has the capacity to steal almost 50% of Irish Rails passengers on this route. This is capacity that simply didn't exist this time last year.

There is certainly not a fraction of Irish Rails capacity as Mark claimed, this is a very large and dangerous new competitor to IR.

[1] Again regular capacity, nothing stopping them using extra buses or increasing capacity significantly by using double deckers.

The 2,434,000 million presumeably inludes all intermediate traffic on the Cork line (except Arrow services to/from Kildare).

Given that the bus services under discussion are essentially direct Cork/Dublin services, comparable Irish Rail carryings are much lower, probably closer to the 1,000,000 mark.

28 would be coach B I'd say.
Are you not comparing IÉ's total passengers carried with the coach companies' capacity? Apples and oranges, given that a seat on a coach at half twelve is not an adequate substitute for a seat on the train at quarter past six.
Plenty stopping them using extra buses (licence as Marko mentions above) and double deckers (80kph speed limit instead of 100kph adding 25% to journey time).

Well it past me just outside Cashel on the M8 yesterday and the bus was almost empty. No point arguing about it as loads of Aircoach fan boys will come on claiming the trains are empty everyday yet when i get on a train in Thurles I am often left standing. Passenger numbers on the mainline haven't changed. This is from someone who travels to college by train at various times everyday and often has to stand for over an hour on some of these trains.

Which if that is the case, it would mean GoBE/Aircoach would be able to carry almost 100% of IR's Cork to Dublin passengers.

That is right and I readily admit it isn't direct comparison. However remember I made this comment because Mark originally said that the new competition represent only a fraction of IR's capacity and thus nothing to worry about.

I'm trying to show how inaccurate that statement is. That GoBE/Aircoach have very significant capacity, enough to easily take at least 50% of IR's passengers on the route and that is certainly nothing to be sniffed at.

If GoBE/Aircoach take even 25% of the passengers on the route it would be devastating to IR's finances.

I'm afraid you are wrong on both points.

1) The license allows for an extra buses, they are just required to leave at the same time (i.e. two buses leave at 2pm, what you aren't allowed to do is have one leave at 2pm and another at 2:30pm, as that would overlap with your competitor).

Bus Eireann have been doing this for years, Fridays and Sundays always had extra buses, literally every weekend.

GoBus/Citylink do it all the time to Galway.

I was on an Aircoach support bus (for the 30 people who couldn't fit on the regular 7pm bus that was full) from Cork on the Jazz weekend.

2) Double Deck coaches have the same speed limit (100km/h on the Motorway) as single deck coaches:

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en...n_ireland.html

Fact, passenger numbers are down 25% on their peak, see the Irish Rail sponsored AECOM report into intercity travel here:

http://www.irishrail.ie/cat_news.jsp?i=4482&p=116&n=237

Detailed facts for you to read here.

It will be interesting to see the 2012 figures and in particular how things hold up in 2013 (when GoBE/Aircoach will have been operating for a full year and should be better known by then, remember they are new services and it does take time to get established).

personally speaking if the buses cause IE to be more flexible regarding their pricing and services then everyone is a winner. Also, the coaches call at some different stops to the train, eg, Cashel, so both services can compliment each other.

BTW, as someone who literally lives on the main line, I have never seen a 4-coach Mark4 set. Have seen a lot of 22ks though, which is a lousy alternative to offer.

For the record passenger numbers on Irish Rail are actually growing, so scare stories of falling numbers don't stack up

"For the record passenger numbers on Irish Rail are actually growing, so scare stories of falling numbers don't stack up."

Hmmm. Anecdotal evidence, but here goes:

I commuted daily from Portarlington to Heuston from 2004 - 2009. I left Portarlington anytime between 06:30 and 9:00, and returned on trains leaving Heuston between 16:00 and 18:30. Portarlington is a pretty handy location in terms of flexibility, since I could get trains going to/from Cork, Limerick, Galway, or Portlaoise - so I used all of those services as they suited.

The trains were almost always six (five?) carriage sets, irrespective of the destination, and I almost always had a seat (in and out). The morning inbound service (irrespective of time) was always standing room only once it hit Kildare or Newbridge. The outbound services were always more or less full, but it was possible to get a seat by arriving within ten minutes of departure.

I changed jobs to work locally and didn't commute at all between 2009 - 2013, but since March I'm back commuting a few days a week. The timetable is similar (some services slower, some faster), but I think the majority of trains are now three carriage sets (Portlaoise services) - and while some are standing room only (again from Kildare/Newbridge) the capacity is obviously only half of what it was four years ago. There's a six carriage set I get at 08:11 which is only ever half full - that would never have been the case five years ago.

I have the impression that passenger numbers have probably declined by 30% - 40% from 2009, based purely on my observation. I get some afternoon trains now as-well (both inbound and outbound - which I never did previously), and they're basically empty (except lunchtime services to Westport, which are almost always packed, and, of course, always three carriage sets.) The six carriage Galway trains leaving Heuston during the day only carry a handful of passengers.

Some general comments...

I find it odd that Cork trains no longer stop here. It does connect to the Galway line, after all. I understand numbers probably didn't stack up, and stopping/starting probably has too big an impact on the travel time post track re-alignment at Portarlington - but still - it was a shock to realise that Cork trains weren't timetabled.

The service overall is good, reliable, and consistent, but I find the timetable padding a bit irritating at times. We regularly arrive at Heuston in the morning on the 08:20 commuter service five minutes before the scheduled arrival time, only to sit waiting just outside the station... for what?

The other odd thing I've noticed is the lack of consistency in platform allocation for departures. The same train, travelling to the same destination, at the same time, six days a week, departing from... a random platform. I think Cork trains are still on Platform 5 (I haven't used a Cork train since 2009), but all of the others vary. It's just a little... incoherent.

I've just completed a round trip to Cork from Dublin, outward by train and back by coach. I expected to drive down and up so neither were planned much in advance.

Managed to buy a ticket for the last train down on Friday just 48 hours before for €14.99, so happy enough with this. No on-board ticket checker and gates open in Cork on arrival. Despite 4 stops, arrived 5 minutes early, in 2 hours 30 mins, so journey times do seem to have improved since I last used the service a few months ago.

With 24 hours notice for the return journey, decided I would try Aircoach on today's return, but as I could not neither book by 5pm the previous evening, nor had access to print out a ticket nor a smartphone, was looking at a walk on fare (60% more), but bus was full. Can't say I fancied the idea of sitting in a full coach for 3 hours much anyway.

Managed to book online for the next Gobus. Slightly more at €13 but much better than a rail walk on fare / on-line fare and no on-line transaction fee. Only about 30% full so a much more comfortable journey than the Aircoach would have been, and as good as the train would have been. Age profile of those on the Gobus was definitely higher than the Aircoach, perhaps not surprising given Aircoach's lower fare. Will be happy to use this again if I can't get a train ticket for the price I'm happy to pay.

Passed Heuston station after 2 hours and 45 minutes, and was at Busaras 15 minutes later.

I still take the train but I am more and more tempted to drive. Last week I drove to a destination which was outside city centre Dublin as I had an early morning start.

However on my way back to Cork past the Naas Road there were two Dublin/Cork Coaches and again I noticed behaviour that I had seen before with these Cork Dublin coaches.

I personally think they drive too fast and overtake which I always worry about on the motorway. I personally don't find their driving styles very safe and I would worry about accidents. It is just my perception but I have noticed it several times when out and about on the Cork Dublin motorway.

Coaches are allowed do 100km/h on dual carriageways and motorways, unless the speed limit is lower. They are only allowed 80km/h on other roads and that is where I've seen them speeding.

From being on them, I've not noticed anything particularly hazardous, although they do tend to do too many lanes changes on the Dublin side of Naas. They are slightly aggressive when taking the M50 exit at the Red Cow, although there are too many cars in the wrong lane (cars from the auxiliary lane on the M50 tend to head for the right hand lane for heading to Newlands Cross).

Buses and coaches are an order of scale safer than cars. And trains are an order of scale safer again.

I haven't taken a coach trip for a long time before the one mentioned above. The only thing that slightly concerned me and has concerned me in the past about other coach driver's driving and is frequently ignored by motorists in general, is non-observation of the 2-second stopping distance "rule" / recommendation.

Some other vehicle in front might be trying to overtake another vehicle but takes ages to do so because its only doing 3mph more (usually a lorry). The coach is then right up the ar*e of the overtaking vehicle because it won't slow down. If anything unexpected happens to the vehicle in front the driver leaves himself no thinking time and everyone's a goner.